United States National Debt
I O U
PROJECT: SIMPLE LINEAR CORRELATION AND REGRESSION
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United States National Debt I O U |
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I A.. Enter the year and US National Debt data into your calculator. (Source: http://www.treasurydirect.gov/)
| YEAR (December 31st) |
U.S.
National Debt, $ Trillions |
| 1993 | 4.5 |
| 1994 | 4.8 |
| 1995 | 5.0 |
| 1996 | 5.3 |
| 1997 | 5.5 |
| 1998 | 5.6 |
| 1999 | 5.8 |
| 2000 | 5.7 |
| 2001 | 5.8 |
| 2002 | 6.4 |
| 2003 | 7.0 |
| 2004 | 7.6 |
| 2005 | 8.2 |
| 2006 | 8.7 |
| 2007 | 9.2 |
| 2008 | 10.7 |
| 2009 | 12.2 |
B . On the
graph paper draw a scatter diagram for the data "year" and
"national debt". Graph the independent
(explanatory) variable
on the X axis and
the dependent (responsive) variable plotted on the Y axis.
C. Perform
the four step hypothesis test. Using a 0.01 level of
significance, test for the existence of a simple
linear correlation between
"year" and "national debt".
D. If statistical
feasible,
1. What is the strength of the correlation between year and national debt?
2. What percent of the national debt is attributed to the year?
3 . What is the regression equation?
4. Use the regression equation to find point estimates for the years.
|
Year (December 31st) |
Point Estimate, |
| 2002 | |
| 2010 | |
| 2020 |
5. For each year, do you feel your predictions
for the point estimate are reliable or unreliable?
Explain
your decision.
a. 2002
b. 2010
c. 2020
d. On your scatter diagram, plot the point estimates and draw the regression line through them.
II A. Enter the year and US National Debt data into your calculator. (Source: http://www.treasurydirect.gov/)
| YEAR (December 31st) |
U.S.
National Debt, $ Trillions |
| 2000 | 5.7 |
| 2001 | 5.8 |
| 2002 | 6.4 |
| 2003 | 7.0 |
| 2004 | 7.6 |
| 2005 | 8.2 |
| 2006 | 8.7 |
| 2007 | 9.2 |
| 2008 | 10.7 |
| 2009 | 12.2 |
B. On the
graph paper draw a scatter diagram for the data "year" and
"national debt". Graph the independent
(explanatory) variable
on the X axis and
the dependent (responsive) variable plotted on the Y axis.
C. Perform
the four step hypothesis test. Using a 0.01 level of
significance, test for the existence of a simple
linear correlation between
"year" and "national debt".
D. If statistical
feasible,
1. What is the strength of the correlation between year and national debt?
2. What percent of the national debt is attributed to the year?
3. What is the regression equation?
4. Use the regression equation to find point estimates for the years.
|
Year (December 31st) |
Point Estimate, |
| 2002 | |
| 2010 | |
| 2020 |
5. On your scatter diagram, plot the point estimates and draw the regression line through them.
III. Which point estimate for December
31, 2010,
Problem I or Problem II, do you believe is the better
prediction for the
National debt? Explain
your reasoning.
IV. Is "year" a lurking variable? Explain your answer.
Click on the hand 
to view the solution.